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September 25, 2011

『考える技術』(大前研一)を読んで考える

Oomae


 教師だけのレポート報告なら、
◆子どもが意欲的に取り組んだ!
◆子どもが表情が生き生きとしていた!
といった情緒的な表現でも通じるが、科学的には受け入れられない。
 1度や2度の授業の成果で「○○の方法は有効であった」と断言する報告も科学的には受け入れられない。

 そのことを裏付けるような書物が、大前研一氏の『考える技術』(講談社)。

問題解決に至るまでには、仮説、検証、実験が無限に繰り返される。このプロセスは、実は私がマサチューセッツ工科大の大学院で行っていた、さまざまな原子炉の実験プロセスとまったく同じである。
科学論文の最後には必ず「結論」があるが、それは実験によって検証されたものでなければならない。他の人間に不備を指摘されないように「これだけの実験をしているから絶対に間違いない」ということがわかるようにするわけだ。P34

 マッキンゼーの先輩は、常に

①「その証拠はなんだ」
②「お前はどんな証拠に基づいてそう言うのか」
③「どうしてその結論になるのか」

と突っ込んできたという(P41)
 このように突っ込みを自問自答できると、レポートや論文に論理性が増す。

 また、仮説と結論は違うという部分も、重要な指摘である。

データを分析して出てくるものは仮説にすぎないのだが、日本のほとんどの経営者やビジネスマンは、その仮説を結論だと思いこんでしまう。そこで「結論を得た」と思って安心し、仮説を裏付けるだけの証拠収集や、本当の結論に至るまでの論理的思考を怠ってしまうのだ。P20

 およそ、自分がうまくいった授業実践報告などは「仮説」レベルにすぎない。
 だからこそ、たくさんの事例の収集をし、検証をし、「結論」に昇華していかないといけない。
 それが「100や200の事例を集めてから言え」といった言葉につながっていくのだ。
 1度や2度うまくいったからといって安易に結論づけるな、という戒めは、自分の行為を謙虚に見直す行為で、メタ認知能力といってもよい。

 むろん、それは「法則化運動」の理念でもある。
 「化」の持つ意味の重みがここにある。

 ついでながら、大前氏の文章の中に、「原因と現象の違い」を述べた部分がある。
 「現象はあくまで現象にすぎず、原因ではない。この当たり前のことがなかなか理解できない」(P21)とあるが、確かになかなか理解できない。

 「売り上げが伸びない」という問題に対して
「営業マンに元気がない」
「製品が悪い」
「価格が高い」
などは、原因ではなく現象(結果)にすぎないと言う。

 実際には原因はこの中の一つであって、他はそのただ一つの原因から生じる場合が多いのである。
 原因になっている部分を直さないかぎり、問題の解決は望めない。大切なのは「さまざまな現象の中で本当の原因は何か」「考えることなのだ。
現象を数え上げるだけで思考を停止させてしまってはいけない。(P22)

 授業がうまくいかない原因を列挙することがある。
 しかしやっていることは現象の列挙になりかねないということだ。
 このあと、「解決策にならない結論は、結論ではない」という章がある。
 問題点(原因)が分かっても、「どうすれば問題が解決できるか」までを提案しなければコンサルティングにはならないからだ。

 「原因と現象と結論(解決策)」については奥が深いので、再度検討してみたい。

|

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